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Ohio State wins the CFP from 17 percent, and we had Oregon all wrong
We had No. 4 Ohio State at 17 percent and Oregon at 43 percent when the field was set. The Buckeyes beat the Ducks 42–20 for the title.
17%
Ohio State's title odds when the playoff began
17%
Ohio State's lowest title odds of the season
#4
Ohio State's playoff seed
42–20
over Oregon in the title game
When the four-team field was set, Ohio State had a 17 percent chance to win the national title by our numbers. Only Florida State was a longer shot. The No. 4 seed then beat No. 1 Alabama 42–35 and No. 2 Oregon 42–20 and finished the season as champion.
The bigger miss was the team Ohio State beat last. We had Oregon as the best team in the field and a 43 percent favorite. The Ducks lost the title game by 22.
Why we had Oregon on top
The odds rate every team by how much it beat opponents by, adjusted for who those opponents were, with any margin over 28 counted as 28. On that measure Oregon stood alone. The 12–1 Ducks won by 20.5 points a game, played only two games decided by eight points or fewer, and won five by more than 28. That made them 25.4 points better than an average team.
Alabama, also 12–1, came next at 23.5. It won by 15.6 a game but played four games within eight points. Ohio State ranked third at 20.0, winning by 16.9 a game with two close games and four blowouts. Florida State was the only unbeaten team, at 13–0, but an unbeaten record counts only through its margins. The Seminoles won by 10.8 a game, played seven games within eight points and rated fourth at 16.6.
The bracket did the rest. Oregon drew Florida State in the semifinal and was 73 percent to win it. Ohio State drew Alabama, a stronger opponent, and was 40 percent to get past it. That road is why the Buckeyes sat at 17 percent.
From No. 8 to the last spot
Ohio State was never a favorite on this board. When the first rankings came out on November 3, Auburn led at 36 percent with Ole Miss close behind at 32. A week later Oregon moved into the top four at 34 percent and Ole Miss dropped seven spots. Ohio State sat at No. 8.
The board shuffled through November. Alabama jumped to No. 1 at 29 percent. Florida State reached 11–0 and stayed third. Mississippi State fell six spots to 10th. Ohio State didn't crack the top four until the final rankings, when it took the fourth and last playoff spot at 17 percent. It started the playoff at exactly that number.
The Sugar Bowl flips the board
The semifinals opened the way we expected. Alabama went up 14–6 on Ohio State, and Oregon's title odds climbed to 47 percent. By halftime the Buckeyes had closed to 21–20.
Then the two games went in opposite directions for the favorites. Ohio State took a 34–28 lead in the Sugar Bowl while Oregon led Florida State 45–20 in the Rose Bowl. Oregon finished a 59–20 rout, the result the odds pointed to. Ohio State held on to beat Alabama 42–35, the result they didn't. The Buckeyes' title odds more than doubled to 35 percent.
Twenty-two points of wrong
The title game should have favored Oregon on paper. Ohio State went up 14–7, and by halftime it led 21–10, which pushed its odds to 79 percent. Oregon answered and pulled within 21–20, dropping the Buckeyes back to 52 percent.
Oregon never scored again. Ohio State added 21 unanswered points and won 42–20. The team we had as the best in the field, the one that had won its semifinal by 39, lost the title game by 22 to the team we rated third.
We had Ohio State as a long shot for reasons that held up on paper: its margins trailed Oregon's and Alabama's, and its road ran through Alabama. On the field, it beat both of the teams we rated above it, each by at least a touchdown.
A one-in-six shot
A 17 percent chance is about one in six, and this season Ohio State was the one. It got into the top four only on the last ranking of the year and won both games anyway, scoring 42 points in each against the two teams we had on top.
The path
- Final rankings: No. 4 seed, 17 percent to win it all
- Semifinal: beat No. 1 Alabama 42–35 in the Sugar Bowl; title odds rose to 35 percent
- Title game: beat No. 2 Oregon 42–20 after leading 21–10 at halftime
