Favored all along, Michigan needed overtime before a 34–13 finish

Michigan entered the College Football Playoff as the favorite and left as the champion. That sounds tidy, and it wasn't. By our numbers, the Wolverines had a 42 percent chance to win the title when the four-team field was set. That left a 58 percent chance that someone else would.

Favored every week, never by much

The low point came with the Week 13 rankings: 34 percent, the lowest of Michigan's season. Then Ohio State dropped four spots, and Michigan jumped to 43 percent. The final rankings had the Wolverines 13–0 and No. 1. When the bracket was filled in, they sat at 42 percent.

That number never moved far because Michigan's case never weakened. The Wolverines rated 27.1 points better than an average team, the best mark in the field by more than three points. Counting any margin over 28 as 28, they won by 22.5 a game. Only two of their games finished within eight points, and four were wins by more than 28.

Two unbeaten teams, two different ratings

Washington was also 13–0 and earned the No. 2 seed. It rated fourth of the four playoff teams. The Huskies won by 12.5 a game on the same capped scale, and seven of their 13 games were decided by eight points or fewer. An unbeaten record counts only through its margins, and Washington's margins were thin.

Texas, the No. 3 seed at 12–1, rated second at 23.9, with a 16.5-point average margin and three wins by more than 28. Alabama, 12–1 and seeded fourth, rated 20.7. That set up semifinals where the lower seeds looked stronger on paper in one game and weaker in the other.

• Michigan: 42.3 percent
• Texas: 28.4 percent
• Alabama: 14.8 percent
• Washington: 14.5 percent

Overtime in the Rose Bowl

Both semifinals reached 7–7. Michigan led Alabama 13–10 at halftime, and its title odds edged up to 46 percent, barely above where they started.

In the Sugar Bowl, Washington built a 31–21 lead over Texas and held on to win 37–31. We had Texas as the second favorite in the field. Washington, the team with seven one-score games, had other plans and won one more.

Michigan's game went to overtime. The Wolverines won it 27–20, and their title odds climbed to 69 percent. That was the biggest single jump of their season, and it came from the game the numbers had flagged as their likeliest stumble. A two-in-three favorite still loses one time in three, and Alabama took Michigan to the edge.

Pulling away from Washington

The title game put the top-rated team against the lowest-rated one, and early on it played that way. Michigan went up 14–3, and its odds reached 89 percent.

Washington answered. By halftime the lead was 17–10, and Michigan's odds eased to 84 percent. After three quarters it was 20–13, a one-score game, exactly the kind the Huskies had been winning all season.

This one didn't stay close. Michigan scored the final 14 points, and the 34–13 final looked like the margins it had posted all year. The team that won by the most finished as champion.

The numbers had Michigan favored at every stop from October 31 on, from a low of 34 percent to a high of 89. They never had the Wolverines as a sure thing. Michigan's title came from a big rating, one overtime escape and a fourth quarter that turned a close title game into a rout.

The path

• Week 13 rankings: title odds bottom out at 34 percent
• Field set: No. 1 seed at 13–0, title odds 42 percent
• Semifinal: beat No. 4 Alabama 27–20 in overtime (Rose Bowl); odds rise to 69 percent
• Title game: beat No. 2 Washington 34–13 to finish 15–0