No. 3 seed, best team: Georgia turns 40 percent into a national title

Georgia won the 2021 national title as the No. 3 seed, but by our numbers it was never an underdog. When the four-team field was set, we had the Bulldogs at 40 percent to win it all, the best chance of any team in the bracket.

The favorite wearing a No. 3

Nobody else in the field came close on those terms. Its rating of 27.2 meant Georgia played 27.2 points better than an average team. Alabama, the No. 1 seed, rated 23.3 after five games within 8 points. Michigan, the No. 2 seed, rated 22.5 with four close games. Cincinnati was the only unbeaten team at 13–0, but an unbeaten record counts only through its margins, and its 19.5 points a game put it fourth at 20.4.

The bracket helped too. Georgia's likeliest semifinal opponent was Michigan, and it had a 63 percent chance in that game. Alabama's road ran through Cincinnati at 58 percent. When the field was set, the board read Georgia 40.5 percent, Alabama 25.6, Michigan 18.8 and Cincinnati 15.2.

A slow November slide

The first rankings of the season came out on November 2 with Georgia at 8–0 and a 53 percent chance at the title. It was the clear class of the sport, and the numbers barely moved as it kept winning. At 10–0, Georgia sat at 48 percent while Alabama slipped to 28.

The rest of the board churned around it. Ohio State climbed to fourth at 15 percent. Oregon dropped eight spots to 11th. Michigan jumped to second at 17 percent. Georgia drifted back up to 50 percent and then 52.

Michigan never got a foothold

The Orange Bowl semifinal looked like the 63 percent favorite from the start. Georgia went up 14–0 and led 27–3 at halftime, putting the game away before Michigan could settle in. The final was 34–11, a 23-point margin against the No. 2 seed.

In the Cotton Bowl, Alabama did its part. It led Cincinnati 17–6 after three quarters and won 27–6. After the semifinals, Georgia's title odds rose to 61 percent, with one game left against the team that had just knocked it to third.

We had Alabama at 26 percent

When the field was set, we had Alabama at 26 percent to win the title. That was well behind Georgia and not far ahead of Michigan. It was the No. 1 seed, the team that had just beaten Georgia, and we had it as barely better than a one-in-four shot.

For most of the title game, that looked like a bad miss. Alabama scored first, went up 3–0 and led 9–6 at halftime. Georgia had looked untouchable for most of the season, and now it was chasing the team our numbers had pushed to the edge of the conversation.

Georgia took a 13–9 lead into the fourth quarter, and its chance at the title climbed to 76 percent. Then it pulled away. The final was 33–18, a 15-point margin over the No. 1 seed. Five close games during the season had dragged Alabama's rating down, and in the rematch Georgia won the way it had all year: by a lot.

Where it ended

Georgia closed the season as champion with a 14–1 record, two playoff wins by a combined 38 points, and the best rating in the field from start to finish. A single loss moved it from first to third in the rankings and from 52 percent to 40. It never moved Georgia off the top of our board.

The path

• Field set: No. 3 seed, 40 percent to win the title
• Semifinal (Orange Bowl): beat No. 2 Michigan 34–11, after leading 27–3 at halftime
• After semifinals: title odds up to 61 percent
• Title game: beat No. 1 Alabama 33–18, after trailing 9–6 at halftime