From 28 percent to 65–7: Georgia's long climb to the 2022 title

Georgia entered the 2022 College Football Playoff as the favorite and still had less than an even chance to finish it. By our numbers, the No. 1 seed was 41 percent to win the title when the four-team field was set. No team in the field had better odds, and the other three combined still had better odds than Georgia.

A November start at 28 percent

The board kept shifting around them. Tennessee dropped five spots to 10th. Ohio State lost and fell to fifth. Georgia climbed to 42 percent in the Week 13 rankings and peaked at 48 percent in Week 14. The final rankings had Georgia at 13–0, with Ohio State back in the field at fourth.

Why 41 percent and not more

Georgia's odds settled at 41 percent once the bracket was drawn. The case for the Bulldogs was clear. They rated 27.8 points better than an average team, the best mark in the field. They won by 21.2 points a game, with no single margin counted beyond 28. They played only one game decided by 8 points or fewer and won five by more than 28.

The case against them was the bracket. Georgia's semifinal came against Ohio State, the third-best team in the field and the most dominant 11–1 team you could draw. The Buckeyes rated 22.7, never played a game within 8 points and won seven by more than 28. We had Georgia at 64 percent to win that game. That left more than a one-in-three chance that the favorite would be gone before the final.

The rest of the field lined up behind them. Michigan, also 13–0, rated 23.6 and had played two close games. It was 24.8 percent to win it all. Ohio State sat at 18.0 percent. TCU, the No. 3 seed at 12–1, rated lowest at 21.0. It had won by 12.5 a game and played six games within 8 points. It was 15.7 percent to win the title and 43 percent to beat Michigan in its semifinal.

Down 14, down to 3.6 percent

Georgia nearly followed Michigan out. Ohio State led 28–24 at halftime of the Peach Bowl and stretched the lead to 38–24. At that point, Georgia's title odds had fallen to 3.6 percent. Ohio State, the team that had dodged close games all season, was one win from the final.

The Bulldogs came back and won 42–41. It was their second game of the season decided by 8 points or fewer, and the one that mattered most. With TCU waiting instead of Michigan, Georgia's title odds jumped to 68 percent after the semifinals.

No drama in the final

The championship game settled nothing slowly. Georgia went up 17–7, and its odds reached 88 percent. By halftime it led 38–7. After three quarters it was 52–7. The final was 65–7.

TCU had reached the title game by surviving close finishes, six of them in the regular season and another against Michigan. This one was never close. Georgia's 58-point margin was more than twice the 28 points we count as the most any single game can tell us about a team.

The full arc runs from 28 percent on November 1 to a peak of 48 percent in Week 14, down to 41 percent when the field was set and to 3.6 percent with a 14-point deficit in the Peach Bowl. Then came a title game Georgia led wire to wire. We had the right favorite all along, but the Bulldogs needed a comeback in the semifinal to prove it.

The path

• Field set: No. 1 seed, 41 percent to win the title
• Semifinal (Peach Bowl): beat No. 4 Ohio State 42–41 after trailing 38–24
• After semifinals: title odds up to 68 percent
• Title game: beat No. 3 TCU 65–7, leading 38–7 at halftime