Ohio State wins the CFP from the No. 8 seed and a 16 percent start

Ohio State won the national title as the No. 8 seed, and it started the run with a 16 percent chance. When the 12-team field was set, we had the Buckeyes third in line to win it all, behind Notre Dame and Oregon at 17 percent each. Four games later, they had beaten Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame by a combined 145–75.

A No. 8 seed that rated near the top

Only Notre Dame rated higher, at 24.3. The Irish went 11–1, won by 19.4 a game and played just two games within 8 points. Oregon, the No. 1 seed and the only unbeaten team at 13–0, rated third at 22.5. An unbeaten record counts only through its margins, and the Ducks won by 17.0 a game with four games inside 8 points.

The bracket explains the rest of the gap. Ohio State had a 76 percent chance to win its first-round game, but its road ran through Oregon in the quarterfinals, so its chance to reach the semifinals dropped to 41 percent.

The low point came before the playoff

It was not a steady climb. We had Ohio State at 23 percent when the first rankings came out on November 5. The Buckeyes slipped to 18 percent by the Week 13 rankings, even as Oregon reached 11–0, then jumped to 26 percent in Week 14.

Then Ohio State lost, and its odds fell to 13 percent, the lowest of its season. They stayed there through the final rankings, which put Oregon at No. 1 at 13–0. Ohio State landed at No. 8, and once the bracket was drawn, its odds sat at 16 percent.

Thirty-four points by halftime

The Rose Bowl was the turn. The No. 8 seed went up 14–0 on top-seeded Oregon and led 34–0 at halftime, building the biggest upset of the playoff by seed. During that game, the title race tightened to Notre Dame at 33 percent and Ohio State at 31. The final was 41–21, and Ohio State left the quarterfinals at 30 percent.

Texas needed overtime to beat Arizona State 39–31, which set up a Cotton Bowl semifinal against the Buckeyes. Ohio State rose to 41 percent as the semifinals began. The game was tied after three quarters, and Ohio State pulled away to win 28–14. Heading into the final, its title odds stood at 49 percent.

The favorite got there and fell short

Notre Dame did what a favorite does until the last night. The Irish beat Indiana 27–17, beat No. 2 Georgia 23–10 in the Sugar Bowl and then needed everything in the Orange Bowl. Penn State led 10–0, the game was tied after three, and Notre Dame edged through 27–24.

That made the title game a meeting of the two best-rated teams in the field. We had Notre Dame as the favorite when the playoff began. Ohio State had other plans.

Notre Dame scored first and led 7–0. Ohio State answered with 21 straight points before the break, and at 21–7 the Buckeyes had a 90 percent chance to win. At 31–15, it was 97 percent. Notre Dame cut into the lead late, but the final was 34–23.

What the bracket proved

Ohio State's run fits what its margins said all along: this was one of the two best teams in the field, seeded eighth because of two losses. Its four playoff wins came by 25, 20, 14 and 11 points. Notre Dame, the narrowest of favorites in a top-heavy field, reached the final as the numbers suggested it might, then met the one team that rated nearly as well.

The 16 percent was never a long shot. It was a top-rated team carrying a hard road. The Buckeyes walked it anyway.

The path

• First round: beat No. 9 Tennessee 42–17
• Quarterfinal: beat No. 1 Oregon 41–21 (Rose Bowl)
• Semifinal: beat No. 5 Texas 28–14 (Cotton Bowl)
• Title game: beat No. 7 Notre Dame 34–23