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LSU climbs from 17 percent to the 2019 CFP title as Ohio State falls
We had LSU at 17 percent in November and 31 percent when the field was set. The Tigers beat Oklahoma 63–28 and Clemson 42–25 to win it all.
31%
LSU's title odds when the playoff began
17%
LSU's lowest title odds of the season
#1
LSU's playoff seed
42–25
over Clemson in the title game
LSU spent November as a team the numbers never fully trusted. By our numbers, the Tigers had a 17 percent chance to win the national title in the Nov. 5 rankings, while Ohio State sat at 48 percent.
Two months later, LSU was the national champion. The No. 1 seed won its two playoff games by a combined 52 points, finishing with a 42–25 win over Clemson. Ohio State, the favorite when the field was set, never reached the title game.
2018PreviouslyWe had Alabama at 54 percent. Clemson won the title by 28.A No. 1 seed that rated second
Even on selection day, LSU was not the favorite. The Tigers were 13–0 and seeded first, and we had them at 31 percent. Ohio State, also 13–0 and seeded second, stood at 41 percent. Clemson followed at 20 percent and Oklahoma at 9.
The gap came down to how each team won. Counting any margin over 28 points as 28, Ohio State beat opponents by 24.9 points a game. It never played a game decided by eight points or fewer, and it won nine games by more than 28. LSU won by 20.6 a game on the same scale, played three games within eight points and won five by more than 28. Adjusted for schedule, that made Ohio State 31.1 points better than an average team and LSU 27.6.
The bracket softened the difference but did not erase it. LSU drew Oklahoma, the weakest team in the field, and we had the Tigers at 68 percent to win that semifinal. Ohio State drew Clemson, a 13–0 team that had won 11 games by more than 28, and had a 63 percent chance. The Buckeyes' tougher road still left them as the likeliest champion.
Climbing out of 17 percent
LSU's low point came in the week 11 rankings, at 17 percent. The climb started a week later, when the Tigers jumped to No. 1 and their odds rose to 24 percent. At 10–0 in the week 13 rankings, they reached 26 percent.
Then Ohio State moved back to No. 1, and LSU slipped to 21 percent in week 14. The Tigers inched up to 22 percent the following week. Only in the final rankings, with LSU back at No. 1, did the number reach 31 percent, where it stood when the playoff began.
That line never looked like a runaway. For a team that went unbeaten, LSU spent the whole stretch rated as a strong contender rather than the team to beat, mostly because of those three close games.
Two semifinals, one favorite gone
The Peach Bowl was over early. Even with LSU up 21–7 on Oklahoma, Ohio State's title odds still sat at 52 percent. By halftime the Tigers led 49–14, and they finished it 63–28. The 35-point margin was exactly the kind of blowout that had been missing from LSU's profile.
The Fiesta Bowl went the other way. We had Ohio State as the favorite. Clemson had other plans. The Tigers led 21–16 after three quarters and held on, 29–23, sending home the team that had sat at the top of the odds all season.
With Ohio State out, LSU became the favorite for the first time, at 53 percent after the semifinals. The team that had trailed in the odds since November now faced the No. 3 seed for the title.
The second quarter decided it
The title game opened even, tied 7–7 after one quarter. LSU took control in the second, outscoring Clemson 21–10 to lead 28–17 at halftime. That pushed LSU's chance to 86 percent.
Clemson kept it within reach through three quarters, trailing 35–25. LSU's odds sat at 91 percent. The Tigers scored the only points of the fourth quarter to finish it 42–25, a 17-point win over a team that had arrived unbeaten.
From doubted to done
LSU's title came from the No. 1 seed but never from the top of the odds until the very end. The Tigers sat at 17 percent in November, 31 percent when the field was set and 53 percent after the semifinals. Their close games kept the numbers cautious all season. Their two playoff wins, by 35 and 17 points, were the margins those numbers had been waiting for.
Ohio State's season shows the other side. The Buckeyes had the best margins in the field and the highest odds at 41 percent, and they lost a six-point semifinal.
The path
- Final rankings: No. 1 seed, 13–0, at 31 percent
- Semifinal: beat No. 4 Oklahoma 63–28 (Peach Bowl), led 49–14 at halftime
- After semifinals: title odds rose to 53 percent
- Title game: beat No. 3 Clemson 42–25, led 28–17 at halftime
