Alabama runs the table after we had Clemson as the 2020 CFP favorite

Alabama went 11–0, took the No. 1 seed and never looked back. By our numbers, it still wasn't the favorite. When the four-team field was set, we had Alabama at a 37 percent chance to win the national title and No. 3 Clemson at 40 percent.

A favorite that kept slipping

None of that was a knock on how Alabama played. It was about who else was in the field, and where they landed. In the first rankings, with Notre Dame at 9–0, Clemson sat at 31 percent. Ohio State climbed to 11 percent. By selection day, Clemson had moved past Alabama to the top of the board.

Why Clemson rated a hair higher

The odds come from how much a team beat its opponents by, adjusted for who those opponents were, with any margin over 28 points counted as 28. An unbeaten record helps only through those margins.

On margin alone, Alabama had the better case. It won by 23.0 points a game with margins capped at 28, had six wins by more than 28 and played only one game decided by 8 points or fewer. Clemson, at 10–1, won by 20.7 a game, had four wins by more than 28 and two close games. Once the schedules were weighed, though, Clemson rated 22.3 points better than an average team and Alabama 21.7. That is six-tenths of a point, close to a coin flip between the two.

The rest of the field sat well behind. Ohio State, 6–0 in a short season, rated 15.0 after winning by 18.3 a game. Notre Dame, the No. 2 seed at 10–1, rated 14.8 after winning by 13.1.

New Year's Day split the bracket

Both semifinals ran at once, and they went in opposite directions. In the Rose Bowl, Alabama jumped on Notre Dame 14–0 while the Sugar Bowl was still tied. Alabama stretched it to 28–7 and won 31–14, never letting the No. 2 seed back into it.

The Sugar Bowl was the upset of the playoff. Ohio State, which we had at 30 percent against Clemson, led 35–14 at halftime. It was 42–21 later on, and the Buckeyes closed it out 49–28. The team we had as the most likely champion was gone, and the 11.6 percent team was in the final.

That result changed Alabama's path. Instead of a final against the highest-rated team in the field, Alabama drew an Ohio State team that rated 6.7 points lower before the playoff began, even after its 21-point win over Clemson.

Thirty-five points in a half

The title game was even for one quarter. Alabama and Ohio State were tied 7–7 after the first.

Then Alabama pulled away. It scored 28 points in the second quarter alone and led 35–17 at halftime, and its title odds jumped to 97 percent. Alabama led 45–24 after three quarters, up to 99 percent, and the Buckeyes did not score again. Final: Alabama 52, Ohio State 24.

The 28-point margin was the exact kind of win that drives the ratings: a blowout that hits the cap. Alabama put up 83 points across two playoff games and allowed 38.

The No. 1 seed, after all

We had Clemson as the favorite. Alabama had other plans, and Ohio State helped. The final read like the regular season: Alabama winning big, with only a brief stretch in a close game.

Our odds when the field was set weren't far off the shape of things. Two teams stood above the rest, and the gap between them was six-tenths of a point. One got knocked out by an opponent we had at 30 percent. The other did what it had done all year.

The path

• Field set: No. 1 seed, 11–0, 37 percent to win the title
• Semifinal: beat No. 2 Notre Dame 31–14 (Rose Bowl), after leading 28–7
• Other semifinal: No. 4 Ohio State beat No. 3 Clemson 49–28 (Sugar Bowl)
• Title game: beat No. 4 Ohio State 52–24, after leading 35–17 at halftime