on YouTubeNCAAF · CFP
Indiana wins it all from 21 percent; our top-rated Texas Tech never scored
The unbeaten No. 1 seed began the playoff with a 21 percent title chance, third in the field, then beat Alabama, Oregon and Miami by a combined 75 points.
21%
Indiana's title odds when the playoff began
20%
Indiana's lowest title odds of the season
#1
Indiana's playoff seed
27–21
over Miami in the title game
Indiana walked into the 12-team playoff as the No. 1 seed with a 13–0 record. By our numbers it was only the third-likeliest champion, at 21 percent. Three games later, the Hoosiers beat Miami 27–21 for the national title.
The two teams ahead of them did not survive their first game. Ohio State lost to a No. 10 seed. Texas Tech, the team we rated best in the field, failed to score.
2024PreviouslyOhio State wins the CFP from the No. 8 seed and a 16 percent startWhy the unbeaten top seed sat third
The odds rate teams by how much they beat opponents by, adjusted for schedule, with any margin over 28 counted as 28. An unbeaten record earns nothing extra on its own. On that measure Texas Tech led the field at 28.2 points better than an average team, winning by 23.8 a game with only one game decided by 8 points or fewer. Ohio State was next at 27.9.
Indiana rated 26.5. It had six wins by more than 28, as many as Texas Tech, but its average margin was 19.3 and it played three games within 8 points. The bracket added a second problem. Indiana's likeliest semifinal opponent was Texas Tech, and we had the Hoosiers at 45 percent in that game. They were 74 percent to win the quarterfinal and 38 percent to reach the title game.
That number barely moved all fall. Indiana sat at 26 percent in the Week 11 rankings, slid to its low of 20 percent in Weeks 15 and 16, and was at 21 percent when the field was set and again after the first round.
We had Texas Tech wrong
We had Texas Tech as the best team in the field and a 26 percent title chance, a fraction behind Ohio State. The No. 4 seed was 12–1 and 69 percent to win its Orange Bowl quarterfinal against No. 5 Oregon, a team we had at 5 percent to win it all.
Oregon won 23–0. Texas Tech fell behind 13–0 and its title odds dropped to 2.5 percent before the shutout was done. A team that had won by nearly four touchdowns a game did not put a point on the board. That was the widest miss in our bracket.
Miami takes out the favorite
Ohio State entered as the favorite at 26 percent, 68 percent to win its quarterfinal. Miami entered at 3.9 percent as the No. 10 seed. The Hurricanes opened with a 10–3 first-round win at Texas A&M, which lifted them to 7.8 percent.
In the Cotton Bowl, Miami went up 14–0 and the Buckeyes' odds fell to 5.4 percent. Miami won 24–14, the biggest upset by seed in the bracket. In the Fiesta Bowl it led No. 6 Ole Miss, which had knocked out No. 3 Georgia 39–34, by a single point after three quarters, and won 31–27. Miami played four regular-season games within 8 points. The close ones kept going its way.
Indiana stops leaving room
Indiana's road opened up once Texas Tech went out. The Hoosiers beat No. 9 Alabama 38–3 in the Rose Bowl, and their title odds nearly doubled to 40 percent. In the Peach Bowl they faced Oregon instead of the Red Raiders, led 14–7 early, and were up 35–7 at halftime. The final was 56–22, and Indiana stood at 61 percent.
The title game followed the same pattern, only tighter. A 3–0 lead put Indiana at 69 percent. It led 10–0 at halftime, at 87 percent, and 17–7 after three quarters, at 92 percent. Miami scored 14 more points, but Indiana held on, 27–21.
Three wins, 75 points
The season-long margins said Indiana was a very good team that left too many games close. In the playoff it left almost none close. The Hoosiers won by 35, 34 and 6 points, and only the last one was in doubt late.
The miss belongs to the teams we rated above them. Ohio State scored 14 points in its only playoff game, and Texas Tech scored none. Indiana, the No. 1 seed at 21 percent, scored 121 points across its three games and finished 16–0.
The path
- First round: bye as the No. 1 seed, title odds 21 percent
- Quarterfinal: beat No. 9 Alabama 38–3 (Rose Bowl), odds to 40 percent
- Semifinal: beat No. 5 Oregon 56–22 (Peach Bowl), odds to 61 percent
- Title game: beat No. 10 Miami 27–21
