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Clemson turns an 11 percent chance into the 2016 CFP title
The No. 2 seed sat at 8 percent in November, shut out Ohio State 31–0, then rallied from 24–14 down to beat Alabama 35–31.
11%
Clemson's title odds when the playoff began
8%
Clemson's lowest title odds of the season
#2
Clemson's playoff seed
35–31
over Alabama in the title game
By our numbers, Clemson was the fourth-best team in a four-team field. When the bracket was set, we had the No. 2 seed at an 11 percent chance to win the national title, the lowest of the four. Two games later, the Tigers were champions.
They got there by shutting out Ohio State, the team we had as the second favorite, 31–0. Then they beat Alabama, the clear favorite, 35–31. Neither result looked anything like what the odds expected.
2015PreviouslyAlabama turns 35 percent into a title as Oklahoma falls apartSeeded second, rated fourth
The seed and the odds told two different stories. Clemson went 12–1 and earned the No. 2 spot, but its season was built on close calls. Seven of its games finished within 8 points, more than any other playoff team. With every margin capped at 28, it won by 14.4 points a game, and only four of its wins came by more than 28.
That profile rated Clemson 19.5 points better than an average team. Alabama, 13–0, rated 29.7 and had played just one game decided by 8 points or fewer. Washington rated 25.1 and Ohio State 23.3. A strong record or a high seed doesn't move the odds on its own. Margins do.
The bracket didn't help. As the No. 2 seed, Clemson drew No. 3 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, a team rated nearly four points better. We had the Tigers at 39 percent to win that semifinal. Alabama sat at 44 percent to win the whole thing, four times Clemson's number.
The November low
The doubt ran back into the fall. When the first rankings came out on November 1, Alabama was 8–0 and at 53 percent, Michigan was at 27 percent and Clemson stood at 13 percent.
Then Clemson lost and fell to fourth in the rankings. Its title odds bottomed out at 8 percent with the Week 12 rankings, the low point of its season. Ohio State rose to second at 23 percent, and the Tigers looked like a team hanging on to a playoff spot.
They held it. Michigan dropped out, and Clemson moved up to third at 12 percent. By the final rankings Alabama was 13–0 and No. 1. Clemson settled at 11 percent when the field was set.
Ohio State: 23 percent, zero points
We had Ohio State at 23 percent to win it all, second only to Alabama, and at 61 percent to beat Clemson. We were badly wrong. Ohio State never scored.
Clemson went up 10–0. By halftime, Ohio State's title chances had shrunk to 2.8 percent. At 24–0 they were down to 0.2 percent. The final was 31–0, a shutout of a team that had won five games by more than 28 points during the season. Whatever its margins said about Ohio State, none of it showed up in the Fiesta Bowl.
In the other semifinal, Alabama did what was expected and beat No. 4 Washington 24–7 in the Peach Bowl. After the semifinals, Clemson's odds stood at 24 percent. They had more than doubled, and the Tigers were still the underdog.
Down 10 to Alabama
The title game opened the way the odds said it would. Alabama went up 7–0, and its chances climbed to 87 percent. It led 14–7 at halftime. When the Crimson Tide pushed ahead 24–14, Clemson's chances fell to 5.5 percent, lower than at any point all season.
From there Clemson outscored Alabama 21–7. The final was 35–31. A team that had spent the year in close games won one more, the one that counted.
What the numbers missed
The close games that dragged down Clemson's rating were also the kind of game it kept winning. Seven times during the season the Tigers played a game decided by 8 points or fewer. In the title game they trailed by 10 and won by 4. The odds read those close finishes as a sign of a thin edge. Clemson made them a habit.
Alabama entered as a 44 percent favorite and didn't win it. Ohio State, at 23 percent, didn't score. Clemson, at 11 percent when the field was set and 8 percent in November, beat them both.
The path
- Semifinal (Fiesta Bowl): No. 2 Clemson beat No. 3 Ohio State 31–0. We had Clemson at 39 percent to win it.
- Title game: No. 2 Clemson beat No. 1 Alabama 35–31 after trailing 24–14 with a 5.5 percent chance.
