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No. 4 Alabama wins the 2017 CFP after starting with a 19 percent chance
We had Alabama third of four at 19 percent when the field was set; it beat Clemson 24–6 and Georgia 26–23 in overtime.
19%
Alabama's title odds when the playoff began
17%
Alabama's lowest title odds of the season
#4
Alabama's playoff seed
26–23
over Georgia in the title game
When the 2017 playoff field was set, Alabama was not the team we expected to see holding the trophy. By our numbers, the No. 4 seed had a 19 percent chance to win the national title, third of the four teams. It won anyway. It routed No. 1 Clemson 24–6 in the Sugar Bowl and beat Georgia 26–23 in overtime.
That 19 percent wasn't even Alabama's low point. On October 31, we had Alabama at 17 percent, half of Notre Dame's 34. The Crimson Tide climbed, fell and climbed again before finishing the season as champions.
2016PreviouslyClemson turns an 11 percent chance into the 2016 CFP titleA season of swings
Alabama sat at 17 percent through the Week 10 and Week 11 rankings, its lowest mark of the year. Then the board moved. Georgia dropped six spots, Alabama took over at No. 1, and its title odds nearly doubled to 33 percent in the Week 12 rankings. At 11–0 in Week 13, Alabama was the favorite at 35 percent.
It did not last. Alabama lost and fell to fifth, and by the Week 15 rankings its odds were back down to 19 percent. The final rankings put Clemson at No. 1 and Alabama fourth, which matched the Crimson Tide with the top seed in the semifinal.
Why Georgia and Clemson led the field
We had Georgia as the favorite at 35 percent when the field was set. The case rested on how the Bulldogs won. Counting margins up to 28 points, Georgia beat opponents by 19.6 a game, played only one game decided by 8 points or fewer and won five by more than 28. That made it 26.5 points better than an average team, the best mark in the field.
The bracket helped too. Georgia's semifinal opponent was Oklahoma, the lowest-rated of the four, and Georgia had a 63 percent chance in that game. Oklahoma, at 15.6 percent to win it all, had played four games within 8 points.
Clemson came next at 30 percent. The top seed rated 25.6, winning by 17.8 a game with three games within 8 points. Alabama actually won by more, 18.3 a game with six wins by more than 28, but it rated 23.0 and drew the hardest road in the bracket: a semifinal against Clemson, where we had it at 43 percent.
We were way off on Clemson
The Sugar Bowl was our big miss. We had Clemson at 57 percent to beat Alabama and 30 percent to win the title. Alabama went up 10–0 and never let the game get close. The No. 1 seed scored six points and lost by 18, and its title chance had sunk to 1 percent before the game was over. A team we had as the second favorite was routed 24–6.
The Rose Bowl went the way we expected, though not the way it looked at halftime. Oklahoma led Georgia 31–14 at the break. Georgia rallied to tie it 31–31 and won 54–48 in overtime. That sent the 35 percent favorite to the final. Alabama's odds rose to 40 percent after the semifinals, the highest they had been all season.
Down 13–0 at halftime
The title game was scoreless after one quarter. Then Georgia took control. The Bulldogs led 13–0 at halftime, and Alabama's chance to win it all fell to 8.5 percent, lower than at any point in the season.
Georgia still led 20–10 after three quarters. Alabama tied it 20–20 to force overtime, then won 26–23. The team that had bottomed out at 17 percent in the rankings, and at 8.5 percent in the final game itself, left as national champion.
The No. 4 seed's title
Alabama's run went straight through both teams we rated ahead of it. It beat the No. 1 seed by 18 and the favorite in overtime, from a starting point of 19 percent. The numbers that made Georgia and Clemson the top two, the lopsided margins and the friendlier semifinal draw, were real. They just didn't hold up over two games against a team that had won by more than 28 points six times.
The path
- Field set: 19 percent to win the title, third of four teams
- Semifinal: beat No. 1 Clemson 24–6 (Sugar Bowl)
- After semifinals: 40 percent to win the title
- Title game: beat No. 3 Georgia 26–23 in overtime, after trailing 13–0 at halftime
