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Alabama turns 35 percent into a title as Oklahoma falls apart
No. 2 Alabama started the playoff at 35 percent and beat Clemson 45–40, while Oklahoma, which we had at 32 percent, lost its semifinal by 20.
35%
Alabama's title odds when the playoff began
23%
Alabama's lowest title odds of the season
#2
Alabama's playoff seed
45–40
over Clemson in the title game
Alabama walked into the 2015 College Football Playoff as the favorite, but not by much. By our numbers the Crimson Tide had a 35 percent chance to win it all, a nose ahead of a team we liked almost as much. Three games later, the No. 2 seed held the trophy after a 45–40 win over Clemson.
The team just behind Alabama is the other half of this story. We had Oklahoma at 32 percent and rated it the best team in the field. It never reached the title game.
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Oklahoma's case looked strong on paper. The 11–1 Sooners rated 23.6 points better than an average team, the best mark in the field. Counting no margin past 28 points, they won by 17.8 a game. Six of their wins came by more than 28, and only three games were decided by 8 points or fewer.
That profile made the No. 4 seed a 57 percent pick against No. 1 Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Clemson was 13–0, but an unbeaten record counts only through its margins. The Tigers won by 14.8 a game, played four games within 8 points and rated 21.3, third in the field.
For a half, the numbers held. Oklahoma led 7–3 and climbed to 38 percent to win the title, the highest any team stood at that point. The Sooners still led 17–16 at halftime.
Then Clemson scored 14 straight points, and Oklahoma's title chances sank to 2.9 percent. The final was 37–17. We had Oklahoma as the best team in the bracket, and it lost its semifinal by 20. That was the biggest miss of the playoff.
A slow climb from 23 percent
Alabama was not always the front-runner. When the first rankings came out on November 3, Clemson led at 32 percent and Alabama sat at 23 percent, its low point of the season.
The climb came in steps. Alabama moved up to No. 2 the next week and rose to 25 percent. A week later it was the favorite at 31 percent. Then Oklahoma climbed to third, and a week after that it took over the top spot at 33 percent before the final rankings gave the lead back to Alabama at 35 percent.
The reasons sat in the margins. The 12–1 Tide rated 23.4, two-tenths behind Oklahoma, and won by 17.5 a game with only two games decided by 8 points or fewer. The bracket gave Alabama the edge Oklahoma lacked. Alabama's road opened against No. 3 Michigan State, the weakest team in the field, while Oklahoma's ran through Clemson.
Thirty-eight to nothing
Michigan State came in at 12–1 with a rating of 17.4, more than six points below Alabama. The Spartans won by 10.8 a game and played seven games within 8 points, the most of any playoff team. We had Alabama at 66 percent to win the Cotton Bowl, the most lopsided semifinal matchup in the bracket.
It was more lopsided than that. Alabama won 38–0. With Oklahoma out the same day, the Tide's title odds jumped to 56 percent heading into the final.
A shootout in Alabama's favor
The title game ran close all night. Alabama was a 55 percent favorite with the score tied 7–7, and it was still even, 14–14, at halftime.
Clemson took a 24–21 lead in the second half, and the odds tipped its way, to 64 percent. The unbeaten Tigers, a team that had lived in close games all season, were in another one with the edge.
Alabama answered. The Tide scored enough to win 45–40, the only playoff game that season decided by one score.
What the season showed
The favorite won, and the numbers got a lot wrong. We had the right champion at the start and the wrong contender behind it. Oklahoma's blowout wins made it the best-rated team in the field, and none of that showed up against Clemson after halftime.
Alabama's run fit how its odds were built: strong margins, few close calls and a softer semifinal. From 23 percent in early November to 35 percent when the field was set, then 56 percent after the Cotton Bowl, the Tide climbed at every step and finished as champion.
The path
- Field set: 35 percent to win it all, the favorite by three points over Oklahoma
- Semifinal: beat No. 3 Michigan State 38–0 (Cotton Bowl)
- After semifinals: title odds rose to 56 percent
- Title game: beat No. 1 Clemson 45–40
